USDJPY to break 110.40… after that: Massive Upside!

August 15th, 2008
  • Overnight the dollar gained 0.7% against the euro and put pressure on commodity prices. Gold, silver and copper plunged to their lowest level in more than eight months on speculation that a accelerating U.S. inflation may limit the scope of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
  • Watch USDJPY 110.40, which is currently the most important resistance level for the USD. Weekly candles suggest massive upside in the cross, if broken.

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FOREX-Dollar slips from 7-month high vs yen, ECB awaited

August 8th, 2008

The dollar fell from a seven-month high against the yen on Thursday, a day after the U.S. currency rallied as a fall in oil prices to a new three-month low eased concerns about the drag of high energy prices on the world’s biggest economy.

The New Zealand and Australian dollars gave up earlier gains against the dollar after strong employment data did little to alter expectations that the central banks there will cut interest rates in the coming months.
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British PM’s job at stake after triple whammy of defeats

July 28th, 2008

The whiff of rebellion is in the air in Britain after the governing Labour Party of Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s third crushing by-election loss in as many months, reviving talk of replacing him.
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WTO edges towards banana deal as trade talks continue

July 28th, 2008

GENEVA, July 27 (Reuters) - African and Caribbean countries came under pressure on Sunday to reach a deal on bananas and remove a major obstacle to efforts to rescue global trade talks.

The chances of a deal on the core areas of farm and industrial goods in make-or-break talks at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) were delicately poised as rich and poor nations examined proposals for real new export opportunities.
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ECB says has concluded gold sales of 30 tonnes; no plans for further sales

July 2nd, 2008

The European Central Bank (ECB) said it has completed gold sales amounting to 30 tonnes of gold, which increases its gold sales during the fourth year of the central banks’ gold agreement that ends September 26, 2008, to 72 tons.

The ECB said it does not intent to sell more gold during the current year of the agreement.
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USD-crosses in very compressed ranges

June 20th, 2008

Average True Ranges in USD-crosses are extremely narrow. Watch out for a big widening. We believe a sell-off is most likely.

Overnight

  • SZ Trade Balance (May) out at 1.87B vs. 1.58B expected.
  • SZ 3-Mth Libor Target Rate (Jun) out at 2.75% as expected.

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J.P. Morgan Quintuples Bid to Seal Bear Deal

March 25th, 2008

By ROBIN SIDEL and KATE KELLY
March 25, 2008; Page A1

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. chief James Dimon saved his bank’s troubled shotgun marriage to Bear Stearns Cos. by quintupling his bid to about $10 a share, effectively admitting he misjudged how Bear Stearns shareholders and trading partners would react to the original deal.

The new bid shows that J.P. Morgan is willing to cave in order to appease shareholders, WSJ’s Dennis K. Berman says.

The new bid of $1.2 billion comes close to sealing the acquisition because it gives J.P. Morgan a 39.5% stake in Bear Stearns right away, before the transaction is complete. Bear Stearns’s board of directors also has pledged to vote in favor of the deal. That means Mr. Dimon needs support from only a few other shareholders to win approval, barring any legal challenge.

“The issues were mounting all week,” Mr. Dimon said Monday in an interview. “We took another crack at it to get it just right.”

The sweetened terms for Bear Stearns shareholders revived the debate about the federal government’s role in the deal. The Federal Reserve stepped in a week ago to cover $30 billion of potential Bear Stearns losses — a figure revised to $29 billion Monday as the Fed sought to limit its exposure and lessen any appearance of a bailout.

[James Dimon]

Officials justified the intervention by saying the financial system’s stability was at risk, and Bear Stearns shareholders were taking a painful blow. Now the blow is somewhat less painful, although J.P. Morgan’s new offer is still far below where Bear shares were trading two weeks ago.

Mr. Dimon, regarded as one of Wall Street’s shrewdest deal makers, stepped in to buy Bear Stearns at a bargain price of $2 a share after the firm plunged into a cash crunch earlier this month and was faced with a possible bankruptcy filing.

But he ran into problems when Bear Stearns shareholders and employees bitterly protested the deal. Some employees had sunk their life savings into Bear Stearns stock, which now seemed nearly worthless. J.P. Morgan faced the prospect of losing Bear Stearns’s most valued employees.

And Bear Stearns’s trading partners worried that the deal would fall apart. Some of them continued to recoil from doing business with Bear Stearns last week. Under the original terms, J.P. Morgan’s promise to back Bear Stearns’s trading book would have disappeared if another suitor stepped forward. Although that scenario was unlikely, it contributed to concern about Bear Stearns’s viability.

J.P. Morgan has “an incentive to get the deal done quickly, get the profits and get it handled,” says Bill Miller, manager of Legg Mason Inc.’s Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund, one of the biggest investors in Bear Stearns.

Mr. Dimon, 52 years old, said the initial price was fair, but he acknowledged feeling anxiety about the fierce opposition and the retreat by Bear Stearns customers, even though J.P. Morgan agreed to back trades with the investment bank.

In a phone call with Mr. Dimon on March 17, Bear Stearns Chairman James Cayne criticized the $2-a-share price even though he had voted in favor of the deal. Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz privately told people the company had been “mugged,” someone familiar with his conversations said.

Gallows humor set in last week as emailed advertisements for T-shirts assailing the transaction made the rounds on Wall Street. One featured a bearskin rug and a caption that said, “Jamie Dimon stole my company and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.”

The revised deal, which was negotiated over the weekend and announced Monday morning, values Bear Stearns at about $1.2 billion, or $10.13 a share. Bear Stearns’s board of directors approved the deal Monday morning.

Seeking to lock up the deal, the two companies agreed to give J.P. Morgan a 39.5% stake in Bear Stearns through its purchase of 95 million new shares at the deal price. That dilutes stakes held by existing shareholders, including some who might continue to oppose the transaction.

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Asian Market Update

March 21st, 2008

- The Indonesian Central Bank said that SE Asian Central banks will soon discuss the falling USD. USD/Asia showed little reaction to the comments, trading higher on local stock market gains. In related news, Japanese Finance Minister Nukaga said that G7 nations are staying in contact over currencies, adding that fiscal and monetary policy needs coordination.
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Weak dollar costs U.S. economy its No. 1 spot

March 15th, 2008

The U.S. economy lost the title of “world’s biggest” to the euro zone this week as the value of the dollar slumped in currency markets.

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Chavez threatens to cut off U.S. oil shipments

February 12th, 2008

(CNN) — Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened Sunday to cut off his country’s oil shipments to the United States if a court ruling goes forward ordering Venezuelan assets be frozen in a case brought by Exxon Mobil.

“One court orders that Venezuela be frozen,” he said on his weekly television and radio program “Hello, President.” “If you wind up freezing and hurt us, we will hurt you. Do you know how? We are not going to send oil to the United States.”

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