USD-crosses in very compressed ranges
Average True Ranges in USD-crosses are extremely narrow. Watch out for a big widening. We believe a sell-off is most likely.
Overnight
- SZ Trade Balance (May) out at 1.87B vs. 1.58B expected.
- SZ 3-Mth Libor Target Rate (Jun) out at 2.75% as expected.
- UK Retail Sales MoM/YoY (May) out at 3.5%/8.1% vs. -0.1%/4.1% expected.
- UK Public Finances (May) out at £11.0B vs. £6.5B expected.
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (May) out at £11.0B vs. £9.3B expected.
- UK M4 Money Supply MoM/YoY (May) out at 0.4%/10.0% vs. 0.5%/10.5% expected.
- UK Sterling Lending (May) out at £4.8Bvs. £18.7B expected.
- CA CPI MoM/YoY (May) out at 1.0%/2.2% vs. 0.6%/1.9% expected.
- CA Bank Canada CPI MoM/YoY (May) out at 0.3%/1.5% vs. 0.3%/1.5% expected.
- CA Wholesale Sales MoM (Apr) out at 1.4% vs. 0.8% expected.
- US Initial Jobless Claims (Jun) out at 381K vs. 375K expected.
- US Continuing Claims (Jun) out at 3060K vs. 3130K expected.
- US Philadelphia Fed (Jun) out at -17.1 vs. -10 expected.
- US Leading Indicators (May) out at 0.1% vs. 0.0% expected.
- US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (Jun) out at 57 vs. 58 expected.
- NZ Visitor Arrivals (May) out at 9.4% vs. -11.8% expected.
- GE Producer Prices MoM/YoY (May) out at 1.0%/6.0% vs. 0.9%/5.8% expected.
- China has raised fuel prices for the first time 7.5 years, causing a significant retreat in crude oil prices and fueling a speculation that Chinese demand will decline as a result of fuel price increases.
- U.S. stocks rose for the first time in 3-day period with the drop in oil prices boosting transportation, consumer oriented and technology companies’ earning forecasts.
In contrast to US stocks, European equities were battered in yesterday’s trading with news of Goldman forecasting further writedowns for UBS and Deutsche Bank taking a toll on banking shares. - The odds of a rate hike in the U.S. at the end of this month has shrunk to 12%, sending USD for a weekly drop against euro, as poor manufacturing data released yesterday has further weakened the case of monetary tightening.
